· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
CPI-week countdown: September hike odds hold near 60%, long-end dip-buyers emerge near 5%, NY Fed rebuts de-dollarization
Last week's payrolls-driven repricing leaves September hike odds near 58–60% with the decision now fully arbitrated by this week's PPI/CPI, while Monday's tape shows risk appetite absorbing higher yields, bond dip-buyers emerging at ~5%, and New York Fed research pushing back on the de-dollarization narrative that underpins long-end term premia .
Iran moves to formalize a Hormuz exclusion zone as transits hit a May low and Brent nears $97
Iran said it will declare, within days, a restricted "no-go" zone outside the Strait of Hormuz — an institutional escalation of its control doctrine — while the US–Iran tanker-strike exchange continues, 10-day average Hormuz transits hit their lowest since May with no VLCC exits since Sep 2, and Brent trades near $97 ; OPEC+ kept output flat for October .