· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Post-payrolls pricing holds near 60%; oil's weekly surge sets up a CPI-arbitrated FOMC
Friday-close pricing kept September hike odds near 59–60% after August payrolls came in roughly three times consensus, collapsing the entire decision onto the Sept-11 CPI as the Fed enters its quiet period, with oil at six-week highs and heavy coupon supply complicating the long end .
US confirms strikes on three Iranian tankers as ship-strike cycle grips Hormuz
The US–Iran contest moved from calibrated strikes to a confirmed ship-strike cycle: CENTCOM says it hit three Iranian oil tankers after IRGC ballistic missiles were fired at two US Navy warships, Iran claims it then struck an unmanned US vessel (unconfirmed), and shipping transits through Hormuz remain very low .