· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
September Hike Odds Slide to 27% as the Fully Priced Hike Slips to Early Next Year and Atlanta Fed Cuts Q3 GDPNow to 4.3%; 30Y at a New Cycle High with the Curve Steepening Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes — The Front-End/Long-End Split Consolidates
The front-end hold narrative has consolidated — LSEG prices the September hike at just 27% with the fully priced hike pushed to early next year, and the Atlanta Fed cut its Q3 GDPNow to 4.3% — while the 30-year sits at a new cycle high and the curve steepens on fiscal concerns ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes, expected to expose divisions inside the rate-hike camp .
Ceasefire "Essentially Defunct" Ahead of Monday Deadline; Iran-Oman Transit Scheme Announced; Trump Vows "US Territory" Claim; Brent +6% w/w
The June US-Iran ceasefire has effectively collapsed before Monday's 8/17 deadline — Araghchi calls the agreement "essentially defunct" — while Iran announced an Iran-Oman transit scheme routing vessels partly through Iranian territorial waters, Trump vowed to "declare the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States," fresh vessel attacks continued (another ADNOC ship hit; UKMTO bulk-carrier strike), and Brent closed the week up nearly 6% .