· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Retail-Sales Miss and Surprise RMP Pause Cut September Hike Odds to ~25–30% and Flip Citi to a Cut Forecast, While the 30-Year Holds Near a 19-Year High as Brent Tops $90 — Front-End Pivot vs Long-End Supply Split Deepens
A third straight soft data leg — July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m — plus the NY Fed's surprise pause of reserve-management purchases has cut September hike odds to roughly 25–30% and flipped Citi to a cut forecast, while the 30-year still sits near a 19-year high with Brent near $90, leaving the front-end-pivot/long-end-supply split — and the cross-asset correlation breakdown under it — as the regime's defining feature .
Ceasefire Set to Expire With Talks at a Standstill; UAE Blames Iran for ADNOC Tanker Strikes; Iran Parliament Approves Strait Plan; Brent ~$87, +4.3% Weekly
Escalating into the ceasefire's expiry: talks are at a standstill, the UAE blames Iran for drone strikes on two ADNOC tankers in Hormuz, UKMTO reports a fresh projectile strike on Saturday, and Iran's parliament approved a strait plan banning US/Israeli transit — while Washington readies "unprecedented" economic measures; Brent held ~$87, on track for a ~4.3% weekly gain .