· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Goldman Declares a September Hike "Very Unlikely" as the Priced Hike Slips to January, the Dollar Hits a 10-Week Low and EM FX a Record High, While the 30Y Holds Near 5.24% on AI-Supply and Term-Premium Pressures Ahead of Wednesday's Minutes
Dovish repricing reinforced — Goldman calls a September hike "very unlikely," traders push the priced 25bp hike to January, the dollar falls to a 10-week low and EM FX to a record high, while the 30Y holds near 5.24% on AI-supply and term-premium pressures ahead of Wednesday's minutes .
Ceasefire Deal Expires With "Almost Nothing" Remaining; Hormuz Transits Hit Zero Sunday; Covert Flows >4 mb/d Cap Brent Near $88
The 60-day deadline for the June Versailles deal expired Monday with the agreement largely collapsed and both sides "further apart than they were then" ; visible Hormuz transits collapsed to five on Saturday and zero on Sunday (vs 31 a week earlier) , but covert crude flows exceeding market estimates of 4 million bpd kept Brent near $88 .