· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
In-Line July CPI Trims September Odds to ~40–50% with One 2026 Hike Priced, While Record Auction Costs Keep the 30Y Near 5.24% — Front-End Easing vs Long-End Bond-Vigilante Split
July CPI matched expectations (core +0.2% m/m / 2.5% y/y), cutting September hike odds to roughly 40–50% across instruments and leaving only one 2026 hike priced , yet the long end kept climbing — a record 10-year auction yield, the first auction tail since May, and the 30-year near 5.24–5.26% — as supply, not the Fed, now drives yields .
Hormuz Stalemate Adds Oil-Spill Compensation Front; Houthis' First Deadly Shipping Strike; US Hellfire Interdiction; Data War Over 9 mb/d Claim; Brent ~$88
Stalemate with flare-ups: a senior Iranian source says there has been "absolutely no progress" on reviving the June deal , the Houthis killed crew in the war's first deadly shipping strike , and Iran's Qeshm oil-spill compensation fight adds a new front ; Brent settled $88.91 on Wednesday but slipped 1.4% to $87.82 Thursday as tracking data challenged Washington's ~9 mb/d flow claims .