· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hawkish Chorus vs Cooling Data Trims September Odds to ~54–57%; Term Premium Now the Long-End Driver; Warsh Reform Agenda and Independence Questions Firm Up
A hawkish official chorus (Kashkari, Cook, Schmid) collided with a soft ADP and hot ISM-service prices to trim September hike odds into the mid-50s , while Warsh's meeting-count reform and reported Trump phone calls hardened the institutional-risk layer , and the Treasury's unchanged refunding keeps the term premium as the core long-end driver .
Iran Says Hormuz Route Coordinates Agreed With Oman, Joint Statement in "Final Drafting," Yet No Deal by Thursday Morning; Hormuz Transits Crash to 2/Day (Kpler); Houthis Claim Missile Attacks on Two Saudi Tankers; First Israeli Soldier Deaths in Lebanon Since June; Brent Holds ~$79-80 as Gold Posts Biggest One-Day Gain in Six Months
Iran said the Hormuz route's geographic coordinates are agreed with Oman and a joint statement is in "final drafting," but no deal had been reached by Thursday morning and the US had not commented ; physically, Hormuz transits crashed to just two vessels Wednesday per Kpler , the Houthis claimed missile attacks on two Saudi tankers , and Brent held ~$79-80 while gold posted its biggest one-day gain in six months .