· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Rate-Hike Pricing Eases to ~58–65% on Hormuz-Deal Hopes; Schmid and Paulson Stake Out the Hawkish/Centrist Poles; Warsh's Six-Meeting Reform Draws Liquidity Warnings
September hike odds slipped to ~58–65% from ~67% as US-Iran Hormuz-deal hopes dragged oil and yields lower , Schmid and Paulson gave the first substantive post-FOMC speeches staking out the hawkish and centrist poles , and Warsh's six-meeting proposal drew BofA warnings about front-end market functioning .
Bessent Sees US-Iran Hormuz Deal "Today or Tomorrow"; Axios Reports 60-Day Interim Transit Pact Nearing With Wednesday-Announcement Aim; Houthis Claim Missile Strike on Saudi Tanker Wafa off Yanbu as Indian Ship Sinks off Yemen; Brent Hits Three-Week Low ~$78 Before Rebounding
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come "today or tomorrow," and Axios reported Washington, Tehran and Oman are nearing a 60-day interim transit arrangement — inbound via a northern Iranian lane, outbound via a southern Omani lane, median-lane mine clearing within 30 days — with an announcement aimed for Wednesday ; Brent slid 4.9% to $83.87 on Tuesday and 1.2% to $78.43 early Wednesday, a three-week low, before the Houthis' claimed missile strike on the Saudi tanker *Wafa* off Yanbu lifted prices back above $80 .