· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Credibility Shock Persists Into Payrolls Week: Long-End Holds 19-Year Highs as "Credibility Premium" Builds; JPMorgan Turns Hawkish, BofA Says September Hike May Be Required
The post-FOMC credibility-shock aftermath dominates — the 30-year holds near its highest since 2007 as markets add a "credibility premium" , September hike odds hold near two-thirds , JPMorgan turned hawkish (December hike, "real" September risk) , BofA frames a September hike as necessary to restore trust , and the August 7 payrolls report is the pivotal test .
Trump Conditionally Cancels Fresh Iran Strike as Strait-Reopening Deal Deemed "Potentially Close"; Iran Warns of Broad Retaliation
Tactical de-escalation on the strike front, unresolved stalemate on the waterway — Trump on Aug 1 conditionally canceled the planned attack on Iran after Tehran and Middle Eastern allies asked for time to complete a deal he calls "potentially close" , while Iran threatens decisive, "proportionate" retaliation including strikes on Gulf and Israeli energy fields ; Brent rose 24% in July and Reuters-polled analysts expect prices to rise further this year .