· Tuesday
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〈Waller Defends Flexible Forward Guidance, Dollar Positioning at Record High; FOMC Minutes and CPI Awaited〉
Fed Governor Waller delivered a nuanced defense of flexible forward guidance in Rome, contrasting with Chair Warsh's push for minimal guidance, while CFTC data showed USD net long positions at their highest since 2015 (~$40bn), signaling extreme consensus positioning that a weak payroll print could violently unwind; the near-term binary catalysts are Wednesday's FOMC minutes and next week's CPI.
Iran Missile Attacks Resume in Strait of Hormuz, Testing Fragile Ceasefire
Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, hitting a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude oil tanker, marking the most significant violation of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire since late June and threatening to unravel the MOU signed less than three weeks ago; Brent crude rose 1.5% to $73.09/bbl on renewed risk premium.