· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈FOMC Minutes Released, New York Fed Inflation Expectations Surge, Oil Spike on Iran Ceasefire Collapse; Dollar and Rate-Hike Pricing Under Debate〉
The June FOMC minutes, released without the usual detail under Warsh's minimalist approach, offered limited new signals, while a New York Fed survey showing one-year inflation expectations at a nearly three-year high and Trump's declaration that the Iran ceasefire is "over" pushed oil and bond yields higher; Williams struck a dovish tone on energy prices, and Morgan Stanley argues that a soft CPI next week could flip the entire rate-hike narrative to cuts.
Strait of Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses; US and Iran Exchange Major Strikes, Oil Surges 6%
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 7-8 after Iran attacked at least three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting massive U.S. airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets and Iran retaliating against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while the U.S. revoked Iran's oil sales waiver; Brent crude surged over 6% to $78.87/bbl, WTI jumped over 6% to $74.96/bbl, and Asian/European equities slumped as the risk premium violently re-entered the market.