· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
June Payrolls Miss Triggers Hawkish Repricing Unwind; Front-End Hike Probability Collapses as Warsh Confirms Inflation Risks Have Declined
June nonfarm payrolls added just 57k (consensus ~110k), with large downward revisions and a labor-force participation drop, collapsing the July hike probability from ~31% to ~18% and September from ~64% to ~52%, while Warsh confirmed at Sintra that inflation risks have declined over the past four weeks — the combination of a soft jobs report and a dovish-leaning Chair is the first major test of the post-June-FOMC hawkish repricing, with Citi now calling for October rate cuts.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran Warns on Routes, Talks Paused for Funeral, Brent Falls to $72
Oil prices edged up slightly on Friday but remain near pre-war lows near $72/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz reopening continues, with Iran's military issuing a new forceful warning on route compliance and the U.S.-Iran negotiation process paused for Khamenei's funeral, while Saudi crude exports have surged to 34 million barrels since the MOU, though structural risks from mines, unresolved control disputes, and a hardening U.S.-Saudi rift persist.