· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hammack Hawkish Salvo Drives Yield-Curve Flattening, Front-End Hike Probability Holds at ~34% Ahead of NFP Binary
Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered a concentrated hawkish message — inflation remains broad-based and too high, raising the possibility that "higher rates may be needed" — pushing the 2-year yield above 4.17% and flattening the curve, even as market-implied July hike probability stayed near a minority ~34%; Warsh is set for his first international speech later today at Sintra, and Thursday's nonfarm payrolls (UBS expecting +80k vs consensus +110k) are the next binary pivot for the hawkish repricing.
Strait of Hormuz: Talks Resume in Doha Amid Fee Dispute, Ship Runs Aground, Oil Steady Near $73
U.S. and Iranian officials resumed indirect technical talks in Doha on July 1, but disagreements over transit fees and Strait governance persist, with Iran remaining determined to enforce its control and a foreign container ship grounding underscoring Tehran's claims, while shipping traffic continues to recover slowly, insurance normalization remains years away, and Brent crude steadied near $73/bbl after a record quarterly drop.