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Fed Watch

July Minutes Hawkish Beyond the 9-3 Vote — but the Treasury's Surprise Buyback Doubling, as Debt Tops $40tn, Crashes Yields, Sinks the Dollar and Lifts Gold Toward $4,600; September Hold Odds Firm Near Two-Thirds Ahead of Jackson Hole

The July FOMC minutes revealed broader internal support for rate hikes than the 9-3 vote suggested, but the Treasury's surprise doubling of long-end buybacks — landing as federal debt topped $40tn — crushed yields, sank the dollar about 1% and lifted gold toward $4,600, firming September hold pricing near two-thirds ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech .

63 sources ~44 min

0. Weekly Arc

The post-payrolls dovish repricing survived its stiffest test: the July minutes showed broader support for hikes than the 9-3 vote, yet the market read the “many” language as stale relative to cooling post-meeting data. The session’s real shock was fiscal — federal debt topping $40tn alongside a surprise doubling of long-end Treasury buybacks, a “YCC circuit breaker” that crushed yields, sank the dollar and drove gold toward $4,600. The split regime now runs three ways: hold-priced front end, a suppressed-but-unsolved long-end premium, and a record-bullish gold complex, with Jackson Hole next.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The past ~24h delivered the July FOMC minutes and, overshadowing them, a fiscal intervention. The minutes were hawkish on their face — support for hikes ran broader than the three formal dissents, with “several” participants favoring a 25bp hike and “many” assessing that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline [1][2] — and contained no support for cuts [2]. But the market absorbed them as a stale signal: CITIC Futures notes only “several” backed a direct July hike, far short of a majority and weaker than the feared broad hawkishness [3], and Citi argues the run of dovish data since the meeting sharply limits the minutes’ persuasive power [4]. Front-end pricing barely moved: CME FedWatch put September hold odds at 67.3% (32.7% hike) and October at 58.3% hold / 37.3% +25bp / 4.3% +50bp [5][6]; fed-funds futures price roughly 30% for a September hike and about 65% for a hike this year [7]; a second read puts the September figure near 30-34% [8][9]. Citi expects the Fed on hold in September and October with the hawkish peak passed [10]; Nomura keeps its on-hold baseline and argues current hike pricing is overestimated, citing no precedent since 1990 of the Fed turning hawkish in the second half of an election year [11]; BMO’s Michael Gregory sees a hawkish tone forming inside the committee but expects an indefinite hold unless inflation worsens [7]; Wall Street’s base case is a September hold with a potential December hike [12][13].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • [ONGOING] Hawkish: Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President, 2026 voter) — per Citi, she said recent inflation data are “definitely better” but maintained her case for rate hikes because core PCE remains above target and financial conditions are loose [14].
  • [NEW] Chair Kevin Warsh (listed separately): the minutes confirm he floated reducing annual FOMC meetings from eight to six, “held roughly every two months,” to allow a full two months of data to accumulate between meetings — no decision made, 2026 schedule unchanged [2][15]; his July 29 press conference again provided little forward guidance and did not fully commit to hiking even if inflation stayed persistently high, which the AP/Independent flag as a driver of long-end yield pressure [12][13][16]; he is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Aug 28 [17][18], with Citi judging the speech’s risk leans dovish [14]; El-Erian pushes back on the “reaction function unknown” narrative, citing Warsh’s speeches and congressional testimony (single source) [19].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • [NEW] July FOMC minutes (released 8/19): support for hikes ran broader than the 9-3 vote suggested — “several” participants favored a 25bp hike and “many” assessed policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation failed to decline [1][2]; participants judged the inflation outlook “highly uncertain” with risks “skewed to the upside,” citing the Iran war, tariffs and AI-infrastructure demand [12][20]; they split on whether AI investment broadens price pressures or boosts supply [5]; the financial-stability discussion flagged AI-infrastructure financing vulnerabilities, elevated AI valuations, and rising Treasury-market volatility [21]; staff projections were little changed from June on inflation but “slightly weaker” on activity, with employment/GDP risks tilted down and inflation risks tilted up [22][23]; Warsh’s governance agenda advanced — a balance-sheet management review task force and the six-meeting proposal, undecided [7][24][2].
  • [NEW] Treasury buyback doubling (the session’s dominant market event): Bessent’s Treasury will at least double long-dated liquidity-support buybacks from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation, effective Sept 9 through Nov 4, covering 10-20yr and 20-30yr sectors [25][26][27]; Citi frames it as a floor of at least $16bn per quarter, roughly 14% of long-end supply, and reads the signal as: if the 30Y breaks above 5.3%, more action (expanded buybacks or reduced coupon issuance) could follow [10]; market participants liken it to Operation Twist, and El-Erian frames it as a possible “YCC circuit breaker” [25][28][29].
  • [ESCALATED] Fiscal backdrop: federal debt hit a record $40.047tn — crossing $40tn for the first time — with $32.266tn held by the public and the US paying about $3bn/day in interest [30][31][26]; June TIC data show foreign official accounts cut $69.9bn of Treasuries in a month (Japan -$26.4bn, China -$25.9bn), shifting the marginal buyer to price-sensitive private investors [26][32].
  • [ESCALATED] Trump pressure & independence: Trump publicly attacked the Fed again Wednesday, accusing the committee of blocking rate cuts for political motives and urging easing given the near-$40tn debt burden [33][7]; Bloomberg reports he has repeatedly called Warsh and sought the removal of Powell and Cook, a Fed-independence risk Nomura says is eroding the dollar’s appeal [34].
  • [ESCALATED] Citi GAA shift: Citi neutralized its UST duration short in GAA, raised gold to overweight +1 with 6-12-month targets of $5,000/oz base and $6,000 bull, keeps long EURUSD, and switched the EM carry funding currency to USD — judging the Fed’s hawkish peak passed with holds in September and October [10].
  • [ONGOING] Nomura: maintains its on-hold baseline, seeing the pause potentially extending to an indefinite hold and current hike pricing as overestimated [11].
  • [NEW] Goldman on EM rates: EM local rates are broadly fair but with wide dispersion — receive BRL/HUF front-ends, fund with THB, steepeners in fiscally weak ILS/RON/PLN, and caution on MXN/CLP front-ends given US rate spillovers [35].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • [NEW] Narrative impact — stale minutes vs fresher data: the July meeting and its minutes predate the July CPI and employment reports, so the “many”-participants-tightening language was absorbed as stale; core CPI cooled to its lowest annual rate since early 2021 and July payrolls contracted, prompting traders to cut September hike bets and leading Citi’s Hollenhorst to argue the minutes will not materially change already-reduced expectations [36][37][4]; Fxstreet likewise expects a limited reaction because the minutes lag the data [9].
  • [ONGOING] July CPI / PPI: an in-line headline CPI with a second straight month of benign readings, aided by a temporary drop in energy prices, plus a below-consensus PPI — together supporting the cooling read [38][39].
  • [ONGOING] July labor market: nonfarm payrolls contracted in July with the prior month revised lower; the unemployment rate fell only because the labor force shrank, and initial jobless claims ran above expectations — a stabilizing-but-softening picture [34][15][39].
  • [ONGOING] July retail sales: fell the most in over a year, read by Nomura as consumer spending normalizing after a strong Q2 [34][39].
  • [NEW] Core PCE preview (Aug 26): the Fed’s preferred gauge is expected to have risen about 3.3% y/y in July — well above core CPI — a hot reading that would support the case for more tightening [12]; Citi and Nomura project modest m/m gains consistent with disinflation [14][34].
  • [ESCALATED] Energy and food tails: Brent is back near $93 with Hormuz oil/gas shipments constrained almost six months into the conflict, and renewed Middle-East fighting has pushed gas prices higher, raising August inflation risk [40][12][38][41][2]; El Nino odds are extreme — NOAA puts 81% probability of a strong event Oct-Dec and the Climate Prediction Center over 90% for a “very strong” event — with sugar, cocoa and palm oil already rallying [32].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • [NEW] Rates — the buyback crushed the long end: after Wednesday’s announcement the 30Y yield plunged more than 10bp intraday and closed down 9.0bp at 5.194%, with the 10Y down 5.4bp to 4.651% — reversing the week’s advance [42][26]; Thursday morning the 30Y was back up 3bp at 5.2256%, the 10Y +1bp at 4.6723% and the 2Y steady at 4.1727% [42]. This followed Tuesday’s intraday 30Y print at 5.34% — the highest since 2007 — and a 10Y top above 4.70% [25][43][12]; since June, Treasury yields have reached levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis [42].
  • [NEW] Liquidity — buyback mechanics and limits: the doubling runs Sept 9–Nov 4 at $2bn→at least $4bn per operation across the 10-20yr and 20-30yr sectors, officially positioned as liquidity support, not QE and not monetary easing [25][26][27][44]; against a $32.2tn Treasury market and roughly $5.5tn of outstanding 20/30-year debt, the increment is minuscule [26]; Evercore ISI warns the move could backfire — it “changes almost nothing” for hyperscaler debt and deficit financing — while SocGen reads it as more communication strategy than substance [45][17][18][46]; TD Securities calls it a first step, with lower long-end auction sizes the more fundamental fix [26].
  • [NEW] Dollar — the revealed preference: the DXY fell over 1% Wednesday to a near three-month low as the market read the intervention as Washington “prioritizing suppressing yields over dollar strength” [47][26][48]; OCBC sees the dollar under pressure [49]; Nomura is building the weaker-dollar theme — short USD/TWD with a 31.0 target, raised confidence on short USD/CNH — on Fed-hold versus ECB/BOJ-hike divergence, Fed-independence risk and reduced foreign Treasury demand [34].
  • [NEW] Gold — the buyback’s main beneficiary: gold jumped nearly 4% toward $4,600 Wednesday, and spot traded about $4,491 (-0.5%) Thursday after touching $4,520 — up more than 14% from its end-June low — with GLD up 3.6%, a roughly 2.4 standard-deviation move [50][8][51][26]; Citi launched a spot-gold long at $4,488 (stop $4,070, target $5,600) and raised gold to overweight +1 in GAA [10]; UBS targets $5,000/oz by H1 2027 [8]; the PBoC extended its buying streak to 21 months and Q2 global central-bank gold purchases rose sharply y/y [8].
  • [NEW] Credit & consumer transmission: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.67% — near a one-year high — with the US now paying about $3bn/day in interest [30][52][45]; June TIC data show foreign investors cut $72.1bn of Treasuries, almost entirely from official accounts, shifting the burden to price-sensitive private buyers and raising the equilibrium term premium [32]; Fed-independence concerns keep Treasury selling pressure high per Century Securities [39].
  • [ONGOING] Funding plumbing: SOFR-OIS has narrowed to roughly 0.24bp, reserves sit at 11.7% of bank assets, and the Q3 net issuance of over $700bn was half completed in July — the liquidity contraction so far reflecting a TGA build-up rather than Fed balance-sheet runoff [53].
  • [NEW] Correlation regime: BofA analysts note the stock-bond correlation has flipped positive — at its highest since the 1990s — reducing bonds’ hedging utility, as investors are no longer willing to pay the same premium for an asset class that hedges less [52].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • [ESCALATED] BOJ — the yield leader: CNBC flags Japan, not US Treasuries, as leading the global bond-yield rise — JGB 10Y at roughly 30-year highs and 30Y at 4.16% — with rising yields, fiscal pressures and energy-driven inflation reinforcing one another globally and threatening the AI-led US stock rally; “what starts in Japan and Europe may not stay there” [43][32]. The BOJ’s Sept 18 decision carries about 84% priced odds of a 25bp hike [43]; its yen-buying intervention requires selling US Treasuries, the latest intervention round is already losing impact, and USD/JPY has climbed back to near 158.50 from a post-intervention 155 [43]; Japan Q2 GDP grew a slower-than-expected 1.1% yet JGB yields rose after the release, sparking stagflation fears [43]; Century Securities sees BOJ September hike expectations amplifying synchronized global tightening [39].
  • [ONGOING] ECB: hiked 25bp on June 11 and held July 24, with June HICP at 2.8% and no forward guidance from Lagarde — a stagflation dilemma leaving long-end yields without a policy anchor; Germany’s 10Y is at a 15-year high around 3.22% and its 30Y at 3.76% [32].
  • [NEW] Reserve diversification: reports this year from the ECB and the World Gold Council say gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset — a de-dollarization signal eroding Treasury appeal [26]; the PBoC added gold for a 21st consecutive month and the Bank of Korea set up a domestic-gold purchase channel [8].
  • [NEW] Other EM linkages: Goldman’s EM local-rates framework sees broad fair value with wide dispersion — BRL and HUF front-ends look cheap, THB too low, steepeners in fiscally weak ILS/RON/PLN — and flags US rate spillovers as an upside risk to MXN/CLP front-ends [35].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑FallingOil near $93 with Hormuz constrained and El Nino food surcharges keep a reflation tail, but the buyback compresses the long-end expression; commodities and gold carry it more cleanly than long nominal bonds§2 / §3
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe AI-earnings-driven rally with stocks near records continues; front-end and belly duration benefit from roughly two-thirds hold pricing, and Citi prefers equal-weight S&P over cap-weighted§1.2 / §2
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)The stagflation pair: contracting payrolls and the largest retail-sales drop in over a year alongside a core PCE tracking well above CPI, a $40tn debt stock and a suppressed-but-unsolved term premium; gold is the hedge§2 / §3
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingThe dominant rate-path read: ~67% September hold, Citi and Nomura hold baselines, no cut support anywhere in the minutes; front-end duration and gold are the expressions§1 / §1.2

Stock-bond correlation call: the marginal driver of the past 24h was fiscal, not monetary — a direct policy acknowledgment that the positive stock-bond correlation regime (BofA: highest since the 1990s, bonds’ hedging utility reduced, see §3) has become a problem. Before the buyback, the long end was trading the inflation/fiscal-driven positive-correlation format — soft data pushed yields higher and the 30Y to 5.34%. The correlation structure now hinges on how the intervention is read: if it is the first step toward fuller yield-curve control, long bonds regain some hedging value but the dollar and Fed independence pay the price; if it is a one-off, the positive-correlation format resumes once supply dominates again. The front end remains growth-driven negative correlation — hold odds near two-thirds with stocks near records — so short-dated bonds and gold remain the hedges, while long nominal duration has become a political asset as much as a market one.

Risk-budget implication: Overweight gold — the rare two-sided hedge monetizing both the disinflation-easing leg (lower real-rate pressure) and the fiscal/credibility tail ($40tn debt, official-sector selling, de-dollarization), with Citi overweight +1 and targets of $5,000-6,000. Overweight front-end/belly duration — the hold-pricing cluster plus the buyback’s implicit cap on the long end make short-duration carry the lower-risk expression. Keep long-end nominal duration neutral-to-underweight despite yesterday’s relief — the buyback is small relative to supply, and Evercore ISI, SocGen and Reuters’ McGeever all warn of backfire — but respect the new asymmetry that the market now has a policy put under 5.3% on the 30Y. Underweight the dollar — the Treasury’s revealed preference for yield suppression over dollar strength, Fed-independence risk, and Fed-hold versus ECB/BOJ-hike divergence all argue for expressing the easing view via gold and EM FX rather than USD spot. In equities, express upside via equal-weight S&P and earnings-driven AI names — valuations are no longer the contributor per Industrial Securities’ strategy team — while Barclays’ flow data show no rotation yet, with regional banks the casualty of bull-flattening.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — the easing script vs the minutes’ undercurrent: the market read the minutes as less hawkish than feared [3][54], but one relay argues the minutes’ hawkish tone is underestimated — “the real danger is that the market is still pricing an easing script” [55]; the minutes confirmed a broader-than-voted hawkish constituency, and Fxstreet warns that any sign hold-voters also see imminent tightening would revive September hike odds [9]. The buyback itself carries backfire risk: Evercore ISI says it changes almost nothing fundamentally — hyperscaler debt and large deficits still need financing — and limited firepower could produce little sustained impact [45][17][18]; “the Treasury Secretary can suppress the curve but not the deficit,” and long-end rate volatility is not over [55][26]; a Bloomberg Markets Pulse majority already expects the 10Y to soon exceed 5% [56]. Falsifiable assumptions: the buyback holds the 30Y below 5.3% through Nov 4; the Aug 26 core PCE lands near the ~3.3% y/y consensus rather than hotter; the August CPI (Sept 11) does not capture renewed energy-price pressure [12][9].
  • Second-order transmission — the AI-financing loop: the FOMC itself flagged that a marked downgrade of AI earnings prospects could trigger broad asset repricing, tighten financial conditions and strain exposed institutions [21]; hyperscaler bond order books have fallen from roughly 5x to below 2x and AI new-issue premia run far above market-wide levels — marginal duration buyers are starting to demand more compensation [32]; a rapid move in the 10Y toward 5% would challenge bullish EM theses and spur outflows from emerging Asian bonds [57].
  • Second-order transmission — global yield spillovers: rising yields, fiscal pressures and energy-driven inflation in Japan and Europe increasingly reinforce one another, with EU gas storage at a five-year low for the date and JPMorgan warning that faster BOJ hikes to defend the yen would raise JGB fiscal concerns [43]; Treasury-buyback-driven dollar weakness plus the Fed-independence story further erode the dollar’s appeal per Nomura [34]; El-Erian warns YCC-style financial engineering risks collateral damage and is short-lived without fundamental policy adjustment [58][29].
  • Source quality control: single-source/social items — Anna Wong’s “minutes not as hawkish as thought” (conflicts with most wire coverage) [54]; El-Erian’s YCC-circuit-breaker framing and buyback-is-small commentary [28][59][58][29]; Pinecone Macro’s yield-suppression critique [60][61]; Kevin’s Strategy Research’s liquidity indicators [53]; Deer Point Macro’s buyback mechanics [44]. September pricing is a band, not a point: ~30% (fed-funds futures / one read), 34% (Fxstreet), 32.7% (CME FedWatch), versus about 55% for a hike by October in another read [8][11][7][6][9]. The minutes’ “many” is Fed terminology for a sizable but less-than-majority group [36], and only 12 of 19 officials vote on the outcome [12][16].

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [50] Bloomberg — market snapshot: yields, gold, bitcoin, Kospi
  • [62] WSJ — the Treasury market’s safe-haven status is fading
  • [30] NPR — bond selloff, record stocks, $3bn/day interest
  • [52] NYT — why yields are rising; positive stock-bond correlation
  • [43] CNBC — Japan leads the global yield rise
  • [45] The Independent — buyback relief may be temporary
  • [53] Kevin’s Strategy Research — liquidity indicators; term-premium distrust
  • [63] Industrial Securities strategy team — earnings vs rates in tech rallies
  • [32] GF Securities — term-premium/risk-compensation driver analysis

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/23 – 8/22

  • Hike odds collapsed from the FOMC hangover to a dovish front-end: The 9-3 hawkish hold kept September tightening near two-thirds, but four soft data legs—contracting payrolls, benign CPI/PPI, a retail-sales miss—dragged hike odds to about 27-36%, pushed the fully priced move into early next year, and flipped Citi to a cut forecast.

  • The long end became the regime’s battleground: The 30-year climbed to its highest since 2007 on term-premium and fiscal-supply pressures, then the Treasury’s surprise buyback doubling crushed yields and lifted gold toward $4,600—only for the “Bessent put” to unwind within a day as the 30Y snapped back near 5.25%.

  • Credibility replaced the rate level as the core variable: Warsh’s no-guidance regime made every release a mini-FOMC; market doubt that the Fed would match hawkish words with action—visible in the term-premium surge and “hawkish hold” aftermath—evolved into a split between a quiet, data-led Fed and an activist Treasury capping long yields.

  • The dollar and gold became the safety valves: The dollar slid to three-month lows as yield suppression and Fed-independence worries mounted, while gold consolidated near record territory on de-dollarization and central-bank buying, briefly spiking toward $4,600 on the buyback news.

  • Energy re-inflation stayed the live tail: Oil’s Iran/Hormuz-driven surge kept inflation risks skewed upward even as hard data cooled; the July CPI window missed the late-July oil spike, leaving August prints as the decisive test for the disinflation narrative.

Sources63

  1. Inflation Concerns Rising at Fed, Minutes Show WSJ Score 65
  2. Fed policymakers' inflation concerns increased at July meeting, minutes show Reuters Score 63
  3. 中信期货：纪要鹰派不及预期叠加长端利率快速回落，黄金重新获得政策与实际利率共振支撑 格隆汇快讯 Score 62
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  10. 花旗解读美国财政部公告：增持黄金，中性化美债久期空头 外资研报 Score 63
  11. 过去40年从未“在选举年下半年转鹰”，美联储“这一次不一样”？ 华尔街见闻 Score 64
  12. 'Many' Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high Seattle Times Score 61
  13. 'Many' Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high The Independent Score 62
  14. 每日更新：杰克逊霍尔会议重要吗？ 外资研报 Score 64
  15. Fed officials saw need for rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, minutes show CNBC Score 62
  16. 'Many' Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high AP News Score 62
  17. An alarmed bond market gets the Trump administration to act again Seattle Times Score 62
  18. An alarmed bond market gets the Trump administration to act again AP News Score 62
  19. Here is the link to the just-released Fed minutes. I will be reviewing them for 1. any clues on whether subsequent data releases may have calmed the F... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 68
  20. More Fed Officials Lost Patience About Elevated Inflation at Latest Meeting NYT Score 63
  21. 美联储会议纪要警示AI股票风险 提及国债波动风险 格隆汇快讯 Score 63
  22. 美联储会议纪要：通胀预测与6月预测相似，但经济展望略显疲软 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  23. Fed Minutes: Fed staff economic outlook showed inflation forecast was similar to one prepared for the June meeting, but the economic outlook was a tou... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  24. 美联储会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论沃什的议程 格隆汇快讯 Score 64
  25. 应对美债抛压，美国财政部加码回购“稳债市” 澎湃新闻 Score 61
  26. 美国财政部紧急“救市”！全球资产巨震，美债风暴是否化险为夷 第一财经-资讯 Score 60
  27. Bond market sell-off threatens higher borrowing costs. Here is what it means for your money. CBS News Score 63
  28. This Wall Street Journal chart illustrates that the sharp rise in yields is essentially a global phenomenon ... led mostly—though not exclusively—by... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  29. The bond market reacted to news of increased Treasury buybacks by pushing longer-term yields down across the board. Beyond the immediate reaction, thi... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 66
  30. The bond market is signaling trouble ahead. This is why you should pay attention NPR Score 65
  31. 连平：持续膨胀的美国政府债务对美国和世界意味着什么？ 格隆汇快讯 Score 61
  32. 【广发宏观陈嘉荔】如何理解海外主要经济体国债收益率新高 郭磊宏观茶座 Score 61
  33. 美国总统特朗普周三再次公开炮轰美联储，其指责决策委员会出于政治动机阻止降息，强调近40万亿美元的国债负担亟需宽松政策支撑……点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 63
  34. 美元走弱主题持续发酵：野村建立做空美元/新台币头寸 外资研报 Score 62
  35. 新兴市场利率：内部拉动与外部推动 外资研报 Score 60
  36. 美联储会议纪要：通胀风险主导了官员们对经济前景的讨论 格隆汇快讯 Score 68
  37. 花旗看淡会议纪要“鹰”味 摩根大通关注美联储内部通胀分歧 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  38. Fed officials warned rate hikes may be needed if inflation stays high Axios Score 60
  39. [世纪证券]宏观周报（8月第2周）：海外加息预期回落但风险未出尽 内资宏观研究 Score 64
  40. Stock Market Today: Bond Market Steady After Treasury Intervention, Nasdaq Futures Tick Up -- Live Updates WSJ Score 64
  41. 美联储会议纪要没有出现降息声音 格隆汇快讯 Score 68
  42. Bond yields edge higher as traders digest Treasury debt buyback plan CNBC Score 63
  43. Japan's bond market may be the canary in the coal mine for the AI stock rally CNBC Score 60
  44. Treasury ups buybacks from 2B to 4B. This isn’t monetary easing nor is this YCC. Buybacks target off-the-run bonds which tend to show larger bid-ask ... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 64
  45. An alarmed bond market gets the Trump administration to act again The Independent Score 60
  46. Markets Rally After U.S. Treasury Tries to Ease Bond Market Stress NYT Score 62
  47. 美国财政部这一打破常规的重磅干预举措向华尔街释放了明确信号：华盛顿正以牺牲美元强势地位为代价，试图强行压制不断攀升的收益率。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 63
  48. If you're curious about the broader implications of today's U.S. Treasury announcement (see earlier posts): Gold is back up to $4,500 The Dollar Index... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  49. Asian Currencies Mixed; May Be Buoyed by U.S. Treasury Dept.'s Buyback Announcement WSJ Score 62
  50. Scott Bessent Is Moving Markets Everywhere, With a Lot at Stake Bloomberg Score 67
  51. ETF指南：美国财政部意外举措后的跨资产调查 外资研报 Score 62
  52. Why Treasury Yields Are Rising, and What That Means for the Economy NYT Score 67
  53. 美债的问题有多大？ Kevin策略研究 Score 63
  54. FOMC minutes not as hawkish as thought. So many discussions on downside risks. Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  55. 美国财长能压一压收益率曲线，但压不住赤字，长端利率波动还没完。美联储纪要的鹰味被低估，真正危险的是市场还在按宽松剧本定价。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 66
  56. US 10-Year Treasury Yield Will Top 5% This Year, Survey Shows Bloomberg Score 63
  57. Investors See 10-Year Treasury Yields at 5% Hurting EM Asia Debt Bloomberg Score 60
  58. Now YCC is far from a free lunch. While it can help bring down longer-end yields in the immediate/short term, thus helping mortgage and other borrowin... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  59. What the Treasury is doing is Yield Curve Control Lite, possibly leading to full YCC. That is far from QE. Just ask Japan. Twitter·宏观市场 Score 65
  60. Where are those accounts who said this administration was all about "free markets" and "supply side economics"? Twitter·宏观市场 Score 60
  61. Good take Twitter·宏观市场 Score 62
  62. The Treasury Market's Coveted Status as a Safe Haven Is Fading WSJ Score 67
  63. 【兴证策略】如何看待美债利率飙升对市场和科技股的影响？ 尧望后势 Score 62