sembr.live
中

Fed Watch

30Y Tops 5.3% — Highest Since 2007 — as the Bond Rout Goes Global; SF Fed's Neutral-Rate Research Calls Policy "Accommodative" vs the FOMC's Restrictive Read, Wells Fargo Flips to a Hike Call, Stocks Slip Ahead of Wednesday's Minutes

The 30-year Treasury broke above 5.3% — its highest since 2007 — as a deficit/AI-supply-driven bond rout went global, the SF Fed's ~1.5% medium-run neutral-rate research branded current policy "accommodative" against the FOMC's restrictive read, Wells Fargo flipped to a 25bp hike call, and equities slipped ahead of Wednesday's minutes .

46 sources ~48 min

0. Weekly Arc

The front-end dovish repricing held — September hold odds near two-thirds and a 94/104 economist poll — but the long end blew through 5.3% to a 2007 high, and the rout is now global: JGBs at 30-year highs, French OATs at 2009 highs, two-thirds of global swap markets pricing hikes. The SF Fed’s neutral-rate research publicly labeled policy “accommodative,” contradicting the FOMC’s restrictive consensus, while Wells Fargo flipped to a hike call. The split regime — front-end hold vs long-end term-premium wall — faces Wednesday’s minutes as its next arbiter.

1. Policy Narrative & Expectations

The net change over the past ~24h is a deepening of the two-track regime rather than a resolution. Front-end pricing consolidated at the dovish end: CME FedWatch puts the September hold at 65% (October at 51.4%) [1], HSBC tracks December hike pricing down to 23bp [2], Citi reads market pricing as one hike this year [3], and 94 of 104 polled economists expect a September hold [4][5]. Yet the institutional layer moved both ways: the SF Fed’s research directly contradicted the FOMC’s “restrictive” self-assessment [6][7], Wells Fargo Investment Institute flipped to a 25bp hike call [8][9], and BofA kept its 75bp year-end path [10][11]. The long end did the talking — the 30-year at 5.33% [12] — with the minutes Wednesday as the pivot [10][3][13].

1.1 FOMC Officials’ Remarks

  • {ONGOING} Hawkish: Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President, 2026 voter) — reiterated that the policy rate is not restrictive and inflation will not return to target unless the Fed slows the economy by raising rates [3].
  • {ONGOING} Hawkish (broader bloc): several FOMC members, including the three who dissented in favor of a hike last month, have signaled tighter policy could still be needed if inflation remains elevated [4].
  • {NEW} Chair Kevin Warsh (listed separately) — data task force: Warsh announced the creation of five task forces; the data task force — led by Harvard’s Raj Chetty, former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and the University of Chicago’s Kevin Murphy — aims to improve “the quality and timeliness” of the real economic signals informing Fed policy judgments, and he is explicitly interested in new inflation measures to prevent the past five years’ high inflation from persisting [14].
  • {ONGOING} Chair Warsh — reaction-function ambiguity: his shifting inflation references (trimmed-mean, AI-driven, “market rates already act like a hike”) drove volatile rate expectations, and the July FOMC’s “hide-and-seek” communication pushed long-end yields above 4.7% [15]; his stated opposition to forward guidance has increased the uncertainty premium in bond yields — BofA’s Mark Cabana: “There is literally a price to be paid for the lack of guidance that Warsh seems so set on. And the price is higher interest rates and a higher cost to the taxpayer.” [16] Goldman adds that his suggestion that market-yield changes could substitute for policy action saw volatility creep out along the curve [16].
  • {ONGOING} Chair Warsh — 2% commitment without plan: he reiterated the commitment to returning inflation to 2% after more than five years above it, but provided no plan of action [4]; he has indicated a smaller Fed balance sheet and an AI-productivity boom would be useful tools [17].

1.2 Policy Signals & Institutional Communication

  • {NEW} SF Fed neutral-rate research (institutional counterweight): new San Francisco Fed research finds the current policy rate is probably accommodative when measured against a medium-run neutral-rate estimate of ~1.5% — a direct contrast with most Fed policymakers’ view that policy is restrictive or neutral [6][18][19][7]. Economist Vasco Curdia: “As of August 2026, estimates of the medium-run real natural rate suggest that monetary policy is accommodative, although it’s important to keep in mind that the uncertainty around this estimate remains high.” [7] The paper puts the current target half to three-quarters of a percentage point below the level consistent with full-capacity operation [7]. Per Timiraos, assuming underlying inflation of at least 2.5%, this implies current policy is accommodative [19].
  • {NEW} Wells Fargo flip (timing conflict across relays): Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects a 25bp Fed hike — “within the year” per one relay [6][9], in 2026 per another [20], and in 2027 to a 4.00%–4.25% range per a third [8] — versus its prior forecast of unchanged rates; all items are single-source social relays.
  • {NEW} Reuters economist poll: 94 of 104 economists expect the Fed to hold at 3.50%–3.75% on September 15–16, and a near-80% majority expects no change through year-end; 22 economists still forecast at least one hike this year versus only two expecting cuts; poll medians show PCE above target at least until 2028 [4][5].
  • {ONGOING} July FOMC minutes (Wed 8/19, 14:00 ET): Citi expects a 9-3 hold/hike split that is unlikely to materially change the market’s low hike pricing, with the core-CPI-vs-core-PCE interpretation the focus [3]; HSBC flags the minutes as the next key catalyst [13]; BofA warns the collapse in September pricing has lowered the bar for a hawkish-minutes surprise [10].
  • {ONGOING} BofA keeps 75bp: baseline remains 25bp hikes in September, October and December, though it concedes weak labor/inflation data lower the urgency of further tightening [10][11].
  • {NEW} Minsheng Securities (民银证券): judges the baseline has shifted from one hike this year to no hike under triple pressure from cooling inflation, softening data and a widening fiscal deficit — while the threshold for cuts this year remains very high [21].
  • {ONGOING} CICC on September: if growth and inflation keep weakening the Fed has no need to hike; but if August data revive hike expectations, a September “preventive hike” would anchor long-run inflation expectations and could mark “bad news out” for markets [15].
  • {NEW} Jackson Hole positioning: 53% of BofA fund-manager-survey investors expect Warsh to stay neutral at Jackson Hole, with 31% expecting hawkish and 7% dovish [22].

2. Key Data & Market Read

  • {ONGOING} July CPI — in line: headline 3.4% y/y, continuing the downtrend from 3.5% in June and 4.2% in May; core 2.5% y/y / 0.2% m/m; energy dragged while core services stayed sticky; investors took relief [23][24].
  • {ONGOING} July PPI — below expectations: flat m/m versus +0.2% expected; 4.7% y/y, down from 5.5% [24][23][25].
  • {ONGOING} July retail sales — sharply below: -0.6% m/m versus +0.1% expected, a softening-consumer signal that allows a less hawkish Fed [23][25][15].
  • {ONGOING} July nonfarm payrolls — negative: -23k with the prior month revised down 103k; unemployment fell to 4.1% mainly on falling participation [11].
  • {NEW} August UMich and claims: consumer sentiment 51 versus 55 expected; initial jobless claims 209k versus 202k expected for the week of Aug 8 [25].
  • {ONGOING} Q3 growth nowcast: Atlanta Fed trimmed GDPNow to 4.3% annualized (from 4.7% the prior weekend); Q2 actual was 1.5% [25].
  • {NEW} Narrative impact: the data flow reads as cooling growth plus disinflation — HSBC’s Ryan Wang: “We’ve gone through the July inflation numbers, and they were basically neutral. On the activity side the very latest data do show some softening. That could push more FOMC policymakers into the wait-and-see camp rather than in the immediate rate hike camp.” [4] The hawkish minority holds — Santander’s Stephen Stanley still expects a September tightening: “Not good enough. So, as things currently stand, I still expect the FOMC to tighten next month.” [4] Polled economists expect PCE to average 3.5% this year and stay above target until at least 2028 [4]; end-July core PCE may temporarily rebound on portfolio-management fees (BofA estimates +0.22% m/m, ~2.7% annualized) [11][26].

3. Financial-Conditions Signals

  • {ESCALATED} Rates — the long end breaks out: the 30-year rose to 5.33%, the highest since 2007 [12], after topping 5.3% as Brent jumped above $90 [27]; last week investors required the highest yields in roughly two decades to buy ~$67bn of long-term US government bonds, with the 30Y ending the week at 5.26% [16]. The 10-year sits at 4.73% (08/18 06:18 ET) [28]; BofA’s technical note: a break above 4.62% opens a 5.50%–5.75% target [11]. The move is global — French 10Y OATs closed at their highest since 2009 [2], JGBs at 30-year highs [29], and 10Y-and-beyond sovereign yields hit fresh multi-year or multi-decade highs in the US, France, Germany and Japan [17].
  • {NEW} Driver narrative — supply/fiscal/credibility, not the Fed path: investors are increasingly demanding a higher premium on long-dated government bonds on concern inflation is above target and fiscal deficits are hard to contain [12]; the CBO raised its annual deficit forecast to $2.1tn [16]; federal debt is about to top $40tn with $1.4tn of interest costs over the past 12 months [11][17]; tech giants’ data-center bond issuance competes with Treasuries [16]; Bloomberg frames AI as “driving up Treasury yields… it just touches everything” [30]. Axios flags the unusual divergence — benign CPI and PPI did not push long yields lower [16]. CICC measures the 10-year term premium up from 50bp to 80bp since July even as rate expectations fell, lifting the yield from 4.47% to 4.7% [15].
  • {NEW} Cash-vs-derivatives basis: the extended selloff is opening an arbitrage trade between Treasury derivatives and underlying cash bonds, with traders alert for a deeper rout [31].
  • {ONGOING} Liquidity plumbing: the NY Fed paused reserve-management purchases for August–September, citing an average SOFR-to-IORB spread of -1.8bp as indicating ample reserves [32][15]; FIMA repo usage still zero, $60bn cap with Bessent signaling possible expansion [15]; reserves ~11.7% of bank assets [15]; SOFR-OIS narrowed after a 9.71bp July 29 peak [15]; Q3 net Treasury issuance $739bn ($355bn already issued in July; bills were 86% of gross issuance) [15]; the Fed’s T-bill share of Treasury holdings rose from below 5% to ~12% [32]; CICC expects liquidity range-bound unless QT begins [15].
  • {NEW} Dollar: speculators are trimming USD long bets as weak data lower Fed hike expectations — Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes frames the question as waiting for September data versus accepting a 95–100 dollar index range for the rest of the year [33]; CICC forecasts a 96–98 DXY range for H2 [15]; a structural note from ChuanYue Global Macro (川阅全球宏观) sees private investors replacing official institutions as core dollar holders, with carry trades providing sustained USD buying — a procyclical system with tail fragility [34].
  • {NEW} Credit & flows: IG median leverage fell to 2.52x (lowest since 2022) with HY spreads near 270bp, and BofA favors high-quality carry (AAA CLOs, ABS, housing floaters, select Jumbo RMBS) while flagging the reappearance of Fair Value Purchase Options in CMBS as a possible loosening-underwriting signal [11]; hyperscaler credit spreads have begun to stabilize per HSBC [2]. Deutsche Bank notes the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index closed at its loosest since 1996 while the VIX hit its 2026 low — conditions that would push up demand and intensify inflation [35]. BofA’s fund-manager survey: cash 3.5% (lowest since Feb 2026, sixth-lowest on record since 1998), bond underweight widened to 39%, and both the FMS cash rule and bull-bear indicator flashed contrarian “sell” signals [22]. Flows in the week through Aug 12: equities +$16.1bn, bonds +$23.8bn, gold +$6.3bn, cash +$25.4bn; BofA private-client equity allocation hit a record 66% vs 17% bonds [11].

4. Global Central-Bank Linkages

  • {ESCALATED} Global divergence — the Fed is no longer the driver: of the 32 Bloomberg-tracked swap markets, two-thirds are priced for rate hikes, with South Korea leading at >100bp expected; traders expect roughly 400bp of hikes across seven major markets over the next year, and borrowing costs are expected to rise faster in Japan, Canada, the euro zone and the UK than in the US — a shift “from the Fed-dominated rate cycle of recent years” [36][37]. Business Insider: the fate of the US bond market and its ability to shelter stocks “will likely hinge on what happens thousands of miles from the Fed” [36].
  • {ESCALATED} JGBs at 30-year highs: Japanese government bond yields are cresting their highest levels in three decades as investors expect a September BOJ hike to prevent a weaker yen from pushing up inflation [29]; the 10-year US-Japan spread narrowed 8.9bp to 175.7bp [25].
  • {ONGOING} BOJ: market-implied September hike odds 81% (from 21% on Jul 30); the joint intervention is estimated at >¥12tn ($75bn), yen shorts were slashed from 170k to 40k contracts, and the yen re-weakened to 159.32 [15].
  • {NEW} ECB: the Bank of Finland governor argues the US debate over the Fed’s strategy and toolkit is welcome, while the ECB should preserve forward guidance as an instrument without letting it become a straitjacket — noting the structurally higher US neutral rate (nominal 3–4% vs ~2% for the euro area) means the Fed has more room to cut before the lower bound [38]; the US-German 10-year spread widened 2bp to 152bp [25].
  • {ONGOING} PBoC: the Q2 monetary policy report keeps a moderately loose stance with ample liquidity and explicitly designates DR001 as the target rate [39][40]; base-money growth reached 8.7%, the highest since 2024 excluding routine holiday cash operations [39]; {NEW} the PBoC plans to explore expanding its macroprudential and financial-stability roles and to intensify its review of macroeconomic and financial efforts [41][42]; the 10Y CGB yield fell to 1.6964% [40].

5. Asset Implications

This section is inference — anchored to the facts above.

QuadrantCurrent probability tiltKey asset implicationAnchoring narrative
Growth↑ + Inflation↑Falling-to-steadyRecord “no landing” (56%) and “boom” (43%) readings keep a reflation residual; commodities/TIPS are the cleaner expression while long nominal bonds stay blocked by the term-premium bid; Brent near $91§1.2 / §3 / [22][15]
Growth↑ + Inflation↓RisingThe priced Goldilocks regime: S&P above 7,800, 85% EPS beats; HSBC sees the risk-asset rebound continuing via bull-steepening; BofA’s contrarian “sell” signals flash against it§1.2 / [22][2][15]
Growth↓ + Inflation↑Rising (tail)49% stagflation expectation; oil ~25% above pre-war levels; a Hormuz blockage would hit stocks and bonds together§2 / §6 / [22][35][4]
Growth↓ + Inflation↓RisingThe dominant read: 94/104 economists, ~two-thirds CME hold, December at 23bp, SF Fed calling policy accommodative; front-end duration, steepeners and gold are the expressions§1.2 / §2 / [2][1][7][4]

Stock-bond correlation call: the regime remains split by curve segment, and today the long end is winning the argument. The defining anomaly: benign CPI and PPI did not push long yields lower — long-term yields still rose, a divergence from the usual tendency for yields to fall when inflation worries ease. With the 30-year at 5.33% while Nasdaq futures fell, the inflation/supply-driven positive-correlation format is operating in real time — stocks and long bonds falling together — and the sell-off threatens the historical diversification relationship: investors may be less inclined to seek refuge in Treasuries in the next equity drawdown. HSBC’s “reverse Goldilocks” — long-end rates tightening financial conditions and hurting growth — is the named channel, and Deutsche Bank’s history shows a growth slowdown, not just a recession, is enough to trigger equity corrections under this structure. The front end still trades growth-driven negative correlation — the 2-year down roughly 20bp since late July while hold odds sit near two-thirds — so short-dated bonds still hedge equity beta; long nominal bonds have become the risk rather than the hedge.

Risk-budget implication: Overweight front-end/belly duration and steepeners — BofA’s long-5Y (3.9% target) plus 5s30s steepener (+110bp target) and its add-duration-above-4.8% rule, HSBC’s bull-steepening call, CICC’s 4.1–4.5% fair-value range for the 10Y if the Fed holds, and the no-hike baselines at Citi and Minsheng all monetize the hold pricing. Overweight gold — CICC’s four-factor fair value near $4,500 with a $4,500–4,800 year-end base, the fund-manager survey’s strongest gold-undervalued reading since March 2023, and rising Nymex net-longs make it the two-sided hedge long bonds no longer are. Underweight long-end nominal duration — BofA’s 5.50–5.75% technical target, HSBC’s warning that forced coupon increases from May 2027 could trigger bearish steepening, and the no-guidance uncertainty premium all argue the long end is not the vehicle. In equities, express upside via convexity (BofA recommends September S&P 500 calls) and quality/value in mid/small caps rather than index beta [10]; respect the fund-manager survey’s contrarian sell signals, whose own overlay is long bonds/short commodities, long staples/short tech, long UK/short US [22]. In credit, hold high-quality carry (AAA CLOs, ABS, housing floaters) and avoid signs of loosening CMBS underwriting.

6. Contrarian & Tail Risks

  • Consensus fragility — Goldilocks with no room for error: the market prices a record 56% “no landing” outcome, a fourth consecutive year of double-digit S&P gains, an ~two-thirds September hold, and just 23bp of December tightening — while Deutsche Bank warns this configuration is historically rare and lacks a sustainable basis, with two failure paths: growth staying strong enough to force more than the one-to-two priced hikes (easy financial conditions push up demand and intensify inflation), or growth slowing from current highs and stripping support from risk assets; its 1999 analog saw the 10-year surge from 4.65% to 6.44% when strong growth forced Fed hikes. BofA’s fund-manager survey simultaneously triggered its cash rule and bull-bear “sell” signals at a sixth-lowest-record cash level, and ranks a disorderly bond-yield rise as the second-biggest tail risk (27%), behind only the AI bubble (32%). The SF Fed’s “accommodative” verdict and Wells Fargo’s flip to a hike call bracket the two-sided risk into Wednesday’s minutes — where BofA warns the collapse in September pricing has lowered the bar for a hawkish-minutes surprise, while Citi argues the minutes cannot materially change the low pricing.
  • Consensus fragility — the long end: Citadel Securities says the Fed’s reluctance to tighten after prolonged above-target inflation is keeping long yields at multiyear highs, “posing a broader risk to markets”; Castle Securities’ Nohshad Shah warns the market believes both the Fed and fiscal authorities take the easier path, and that recent disinflation and labor softening do not mean rate risk is gone — next month’s decision is “very difficult to judge.” Axios: if yields go too high, rising rates discourage activity, boost unemployment, and can even lead to recession. The polled-economist profile — PCE above target at least until 2028 — is the underlying source of the premium.
  • Second-order transmission: oil — Brent above $90 at a six-week high and ~25% above pre-war levels, with a Hormuz blockage the named underpriced stagflation black swan that would hit stocks and bonds simultaneously. AI financing — off-balance-sheet commitments may make Big Tech’s AI spending $3 trillion higher than it seems, with the four largest hyperscalers projected to lift spending 57% next year; the fund-manager survey again names AI hyperscaler capex (38%) and private credit (23%) as the most likely sources of a systemic credit event. Carry unwind — yen shorts were slashed from 170k to 40k contracts and “short yen” remains the second-most-crowded trade, but stacked negatives can amplify, and the yen level is the key variable: if intervention fails and forces BOJ hikes, yen appreciation could trigger a carry unwind and private-sector Treasury selling; the private-led dollar system is strongly procyclical, so a macro reversal would force leveraged positions into a liquidity stampede. Global growth is less convincing than earnings — US Q2 GDP at a sluggish 1.5%, China July activity missing across the board, Japan Q2 GDP soft — with more weak data likely to cast doubt on the wisdom of US and Japanese hikes and accelerate China-stimulus calls. Politics — 72% of managers expect no hike before the midterms, and a Democratic sweep would see the largest group (37%) expect higher yields and lower stocks. El Niño is intensifying (nino3.4 at 2.6, above the 2015 and 2023 same-week readings) — a potential food-inflation second wave.
  • Source quality control: the SF Fed neutral-rate item is single-source (Timiraos social post); the El-Erian global-yield and 5.30% posts are single-source social; the “30-year highest since 2007” and “AI driving up Treasury yields” headlines are social relays of Bloomberg via Barraud; the Wells Fargo revision appears via social relays with conflicting timing (2026 vs 2027); the PBoC macroprudential/stability-review items are single-source social; Deutsche Bank flags the data-reliability backdrop — the preliminary 2025 benchmark revision cut nonfarm payrolls by 911k (-0.6%), and BEA purchasing power has fallen 16% since FY2016; oil levels differ by timestamp ($88.5 last week’s close vs $90.92 Monday); Huachuang Securities (华创证券研究所) flags EPFR’s incomplete coverage of private funds, insurance and retail direct holdings.

Appendix: Additional Sources

  • [43] Bloomberg — Bond rout sends long-term borrowing costs to highest in decades
  • [44] Bloomberg — 30Y hits highest in almost two decades
  • [31] Bloomberg — traders alert for deeper bond rout; derivatives/cash arbitrage
  • [45] Bloomberg — debt, supply, five-years-above-target drivers
  • [37] El-Erian (social) — two-thirds of swap markets priced for hikes
  • [46] El-Erian (social) — 30Y heading toward 5.30%; housing implications
  • [30] Bloomberg via Barraud (social) — AI is driving up Treasury yields
  • [18] SF Fed — Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest (single-source social)
  • [27] WSJ — 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.3%
  • [5] Financial Juice — 94 of 104 economists expect September hold

This report is a macro-mechanism analysis, not investment advice.

30-day review of this series 7/23 – 8/22

  • Hike odds collapsed from the FOMC hangover to a dovish front-end: The 9-3 hawkish hold kept September tightening near two-thirds, but four soft data legs—contracting payrolls, benign CPI/PPI, a retail-sales miss—dragged hike odds to about 27-36%, pushed the fully priced move into early next year, and flipped Citi to a cut forecast.

  • The long end became the regime’s battleground: The 30-year climbed to its highest since 2007 on term-premium and fiscal-supply pressures, then the Treasury’s surprise buyback doubling crushed yields and lifted gold toward $4,600—only for the “Bessent put” to unwind within a day as the 30Y snapped back near 5.25%.

  • Credibility replaced the rate level as the core variable: Warsh’s no-guidance regime made every release a mini-FOMC; market doubt that the Fed would match hawkish words with action—visible in the term-premium surge and “hawkish hold” aftermath—evolved into a split between a quiet, data-led Fed and an activist Treasury capping long yields.

  • The dollar and gold became the safety valves: The dollar slid to three-month lows as yield suppression and Fed-independence worries mounted, while gold consolidated near record territory on de-dollarization and central-bank buying, briefly spiking toward $4,600 on the buyback news.

  • Energy re-inflation stayed the live tail: Oil’s Iran/Hormuz-driven surge kept inflation risks skewed upward even as hard data cooled; the July CPI window missed the late-July oil spike, leaving August prints as the decisive test for the disinflation narrative.

Sources46

  1. 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为65% 格隆汇快讯 Score 66
  2. 金发姑娘还是长端痛苦？：全球多资产策略展望 外资研报 Score 61
  3. 每日更新：滞后的FOMC会议纪要 外资研报 Score 66
  4. Fed to hold interest rates this year, economists say, sticking to their view: Reuters poll Reuters Score 64
  5. Poll: US Federal Reserve to hold fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, said 94 of 104 economists (vs 95 of 104 economists in July poll) Twitter·财经快讯 Score 65
  6. 旧金山联储周一发布的研究结论和多数美联储官员"政策处于限制性区间"的判断形成鲜明对比。富国银行同日改口称预计美联储年内将加息25个基点。点击查看... 金十-快讯 Score 64
  7. One neutral rate estimate suggests Fed's policy stance is accommodative, paper says Reuters Score 65
  8. Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects the US Fed to hike rates by 25 bps in 2027, taking the benchmark rate to 4.00%-4.25% vs. the prior forecast o... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  9. 格隆汇8月17日｜富国投资研究所预计，美联储今年将加息25个基点，之前的预测为维持利率不变。 格隆汇快讯 Score 65
  10. 交易催化剂：美联储门槛降低，零售商门槛升高 外资研报 Score 62
  11. 美银固收策略：AI资本支出推动增长，转向做多5年期美债并看好曲线陡峭化 外资研报 Score 62
  12. The Bond Market Is Sending a Warning With Rising Long-Term Debt Costs Bloomberg Score 64
  13. 贵金属日报：黄金受美元走弱支撑，市场静待FOMC会议纪要 外资研报 Score 64
  14. 美联储数据工作组第五期：替代数据与通胀监测 外资研报 Score 62
  15. 海外流动性会出问题么？ Kevin策略研究 Score 66
  16. What rising Treasury yields are telling us Axios Score 68
  17. Trading Day: Bonds play the blues Reuters Score 62
  18. 🇺🇸 Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest – San Francisco Fed https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 68
  19. A new estimate of the medium-run neutral rate by an economist at the SF Fed suggests it is around 1.5% (with a wide uncertainty band). If you assume u... Twitter·财经快讯 Score 67
  20. Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects US Fed to hike rates by 25 bps this year, vs. the prior forecast of rates unchanged Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  21. [民银证券]海外宏观周报（2026年第31期）：三重压力下美联储加息门槛持续升高 内资宏观研究 Score 62
  22. 美银全球基金经理调查：债市失控已升至第二大尾部风险，仅次于AI泡沫 华尔街见闻 Score 60
  23. 4 reasons why Wall Street is abandoning its call for higher rates next month Business Insider Score 61
  24. [光大期货]宏观周报：信用派生偏弱，债券融资支撑社融增长 内资宏观研究 Score 61
  25. 美国零售销售和消费者信心低于预期——海外周报第153期 一瑜中的 Score 64
  26. [中邮证券]海外宏观周报：美国通胀趋缓，加息预期降温 内资宏观研究 Score 65
  27. Yield on 30-year Treasury Bond Tops 5.3% WSJ Score 60
  28. Bond Yields Are Hitting Multidecade Highs Around the World Bloomberg Score 64
  29. Japanese Bond Yield Hits 30-Year High WSJ Score 61
  30. 🇺🇸 AI Is Driving Up Treasury Yields: ‘It Just Touches Everything’ - Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/ai-is-driving... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 63
  31. Traders Alert for Deeper Bond Rout Fueling Niche Arbitrage Trade Bloomberg Score 64
  32. 美联储资产负债表：沃什、贝森特与变革之风 外资研报 Score 60
  33. 法兴银行：美国数据促使美元看涨投机押注减少 格隆汇快讯 Score 60
  34. 美元有基本面支撑吗？ 华尔街见闻 Score 64
  35. 市场能否实现金发姑娘经济，还是必然出现调整？ 外资研报 Score 61
  36. The stock market's Goldilocks moment has one big problem involving bonds Business Insider Score 62
  37. Staying on the topic of interest rates, this from Bloomberg on market expectations for central bank policies: "Traders see borrowing costs rising fast... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 68
  38. Europe still needs forward guidance -- but not as a straitjacket Financial Times Score 61
  39. 金融月评｜“流动性充裕”政策立场背后的经济叙事 澎湃新闻 Score 62
  40. [金元证券]周度概览：流动性持稳、通胀偏弱，10Y国债下破1.7% 内资策略报告 Score 64
  41. PBoC: to explore expansion of central bank's macroprudential and financial stability roles Twitter·财经快讯 Score 66
  42. PBoC: to intensify review of macroeconomic and financial efforts Twitter·财经快讯 Score 62
  43. Bond Rout Sends Long-Term Borrowing Costs to Highest in Decades Bloomberg Score 60
  44. Long-Bond Yields Flash a New Warning Bloomberg Score 63
  45. US Bond Selloff Drives 30-Year Yields to Highest Since 2007 Bloomberg Score 62
  46. Slowly and steadily, the 30-year US Treasury yield is heading toward 5.30%, a level the economy -- and the housing market in particular-- has not seen... Twitter·宏观市场 Score 61