· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
December hike firms back above 81% as a supply-driven duration rally runs a second day
December hike pricing has firmed back to roughly 81% on CME FedWatch even as Treasuries rallied for a second straight session across every tenor and oil fell 8%, so the marginal information is not the rate path but the *driver* of the bond bid — now re-labelled from haven demand to contained fiscal supply plus a volatility crush .
Iran's navy claims a fresh Hormuz mine strike as ADNOC weighs a third bypass pipeline and Brent slides more than 14% on ceasefire hopes
The physical and financial layers diverged again — Iran's navy said a tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz on the morning of 11/05 and the Houthis were reported to have attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and seized ground commanding the Bab waterway , while Brent tumbled more than 14% since Monday on ceasefire hopes after the Democratic midterm sweep , a slide Barclays attributes to sentiment rather than fundamentals .