· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Decision day: a hold near 90% is priced, but the committee cannot agree on whether financial conditions are already doing the tightening
The Fed holds tonight with a pause priced at 90.6% on CME and 92.8% on a second tracker , and the marginal information is that the pause is being justified as much by what officials have already said as by the economy while the committee openly splits over whether tight financial conditions can substitute for a hike .
Houthis claim a ballistic missile strike on Ras Tanura as Brent rebounds to $115.59 and Israel's election deadlocks
The past 24 hours escalate on the proxy and pricing layers at once — the Houthis claimed a ballistic missile attack on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, Ras Tanura , Brent rebounded 1.32% to $115.59 and WTI 1.47% to $101.37 , and Bloomberg reported the market treating the war as binary and positioning for another round of hostilities "perhaps as soon as next week" — while Israel's election headed for a stalemate that leaves its Iran policy unclear .