· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
A ~90% hold is priced with four days to go, but twelve-month hike pricing has quietly shrunk to 63.5bp
The October hold is now a broad consensus and the sell side still expects a December move, but the marginal information is that the market has cut twelve-month tightening to 63.5bp from 80–90bp earlier this month, with January swaps implying only one hike across the next three meetings — a front end that Goldman Sachs calls too hawkish and wants expressed through long US real rates rather than through the policy path .
Brent settles at $116.72 as the US intelligence chief warns Iranian plotting is "advanced" and eight ministers demand Hormuz reopen
Escalation has migrated from the waterway onto the threat assessment and the diplomatic calendar — Brent closed at $116.72 after touching $117.45, its first print above $117 since April , as the US director of national intelligence warned in an unclassified memo that Iranian "lethal plotting" against US citizens has reached "advanced stages" and eight European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers in Istanbul urged Washington and Israel not to renew strikes while demanding Hormuz be reopened . Crude is firm at a higher plateau; the physical market beneath it is softer than the paper.