· Thursday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
October hike odds near 70% as a boom-time PMI and Barr's "further policy adjustments" harden the cycle call; 10-year tops 5.1%
The Fed's hawkish turn hardened from expectation into priced cycle — Governor Michael Barr said further policy adjustments are likely and New York's John Williams called another hike before year-end reasonable, while a September flash PMI showing the fastest business expansion in five years and the hottest price pressures since 2022 pushed October hike odds to roughly 70% and the 10-year Treasury to its highest close since 2007 .
Brent rebounds 3.86% to $103.08 as the UN General Assembly yields no breakthrough and a diesel-export-ban scare whipsaws fuel markets
The UN General Assembly produced no diplomatic breakthrough — the first US–Iran talks since June ended without one — and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's defiant stance plus a rumored 90-day US diesel export ban that the White House then denied snapped Brent back above $100 on 9/23, with Brent November up 3.86% to $103.08 and WTI up 1.81% to $92.16, even as Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed and Yanbu loadings fell to near zero .