· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hike odds leap to ~70% on an above-forecast PPI and $100+ oil; today's CPI is the final word
September hike pricing has repriced hard to a 70–73% band after August PPI accelerated above expectations and Brent broke back above $100, leaving today's August core CPI — with ±0.2% m/m framed as the swing line — as the sole arbiter of the September FOMC, while the 30Y touched its highest since 2007 and the Treasury's first expanded buyback underdelivered .
Houthis press on Bab el-Mandeb as Brent logs its first weekly close above $100 since mid-May
Escalation broadened to a second chokepoint — the Houthis took Yemen's Red Sea port of Mokha and pushed toward the Bab el-Mandeb, helping drive Brent to an intraday $108.42 and US diesel above $6 a gallon for the first time ever — but two counter-signals appeared: a Gulf–Iran foreign-ministers meeting set for Salalah on Sept 14 and a Houthi announcement that fighting on Yemen's western Red Sea coast has stopped .