· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈FOMC Binary Outcome Looms as July Hike Probability Hits 38% While All 76 Economists Expect a Hold; Oil at $100, 10-Year at 4.71%, Brent Up 25% Since June FOMC〉
The July 28-29 FOMC meeting is now the most binary in years — CME FedWatch shows a 38% hike probability while all 76 Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect a hold; Brent crude breached $100/bbl (up 25% since the June FOMC) and 10-year yields hit 4.71% (January 2025 high); institutional forecasts diverge sharply, with 38% of the probability distribution pricing a hike that no economist expects, reflecting Warsh's abandoned forward guidance.
〈Strike Pause Opens Diplomatic Window; Houthi Red Sea Escalation Threatens Saudi Lifeline; Brent Holds Near $100〉
The US paused airstrikes on Iran for a second consecutive night as Omani-mediated talks made "constructive" progress toward a provisional Strait of Hormuz transit deal, but the dual-chokepoint crisis deepened as Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Jizan and Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi targets in Yemen for the first time since 2022, threatening Saudi Arabia's last remaining oil export route.