· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
〈Warsh Testimony and CPI Loom as Dovish Signals Mount; July Hike Probability at 24%〉
With market-implied July hike probability at just 24% and a Bloomberg economist arguing the market does not truly believe the Fed will act, Chair Warsh's testimony alongside June CPI next week is the binary catalyst; Warsh's flexible interpretation of the 2% target and Trump/Bessent pressure reinforce the dovish narrative, while Goldman sees rate-vol upside risk as the new communication framework takes shape.
Iran Declares Strait Closure, Third U.S. Strike Wave, Omani Mediation Fails to Secure Immediate Agreement, Oil Rises
The U.S.-Iran standoff escalated sharply on July 11-12: Iran fired warning shots on a container ship, declared the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely, and launched missile and drone salvoes at five Gulf states; the U.S. responded with a third wave of strikes within a week, hitting ~140 targets; Omani-led talks to reopen the waterway failed to secure an immediate Iranian agreement; Strait traffic dropped to 11 vessels in 24 hours, and Brent crude closed the week near $76/bbl, about 5% above pre-war levels.