· Friday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
PCE Data Delivers Below-Expected Core Reading, Easing Near-Term Hawkish Pressure; Gold Breaches $4,000, Dollar Rally Pauses
The May core PCE monthly increase of 0.4% came in *below* the 0.5% consensus, prompting traders to trim July rate-hike probabilities from ~40% to ~30% and pushing the 2-year yield toward 4.09%, but annual core PCE of 4.1% (a multi-year high) caps the dovish repricing; NY Fed's Williams sees inflation moderating, Chicago's Goolsbee flags persistent price pressure, and the cross-currents leave the September hike narrative intact (~50% probability) while creating a tactical window for risk parity to increase bond duration.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran Strikes Cargo Vessel, UN Pauses Evacuation, Traffic Continues as Oil Rebounds
The fragile reopening suffered its first direct military test — Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a Singapore-flagged container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, prompting the IMO to pause its evacuation plan, but two-way traffic continued and oil prices rebounded (>2% WTI) as the market assessed whether the strike was a one-off warning or the start of a renewed campaign.