· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
FOMC Day: Warsh's First Meeting — Hawkish Statement Expected, Dovish Presser Binary, Iran Deal Provides Cushion
The FOMC meets today with Chair Warsh's first press conference — a hawkish statement (removal of easing bias, higher SEP, no 2026 cuts) is nearly universally expected, but Warsh's dovish lean on AI/disinflation creates a binary risk; the Iran peace deal's oil collapse provides a disinflationary cushion that could sustain the bond rally if Warsh strikes a patient tone.
Strait of Hormuz Implementation Stalls as Shipping Skepticism, Mine Threats, and Iran's Fee Demands Persist
Oil prices fell further Tuesday (Brent below $79, WTI below $77) as the U.S.-Iran deal faces implementation hurdles: shipping companies remain extremely cautious, Iran insists on retaining control and charging fees, U.S. intelligence assesses Iran can close the Strait again, and the full text remains secret.