· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
December holds near 78% as the hike case passes to next week's CPI
With no FOMC voice and no top-tier print in the batch, December pricing simply holds where the payroll beat left it at roughly 78% on CME FedWatch from 67% before the release, so the marginal information is that the entire hike case now rests on the coming US inflation data while a heavier first-quarter Treasury borrowing calendar and a rising-natural-rate argument quietly attack the other end of the curve .
IRGC repeats a two-tanker mine claim and widens it into a blanket threat as Washington puts $20m on Iran's nuclear file
The kinetic layer produced no new confirmed damage but two fresh declaratory escalations — the IRGC Navy said two tankers struck mines in and east of the strait and warned that any vessel "cooperating" with the US "will inevitably strike mines" , while US Central Command posted a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear programme hours after the latest limited US strike — leaving the Qatari two-day bridge deal written but unratified, hinging on an Iran–Oman strait mechanism Washington has not approved .