· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
December holds near 75% into a refunding-and-payrolls week as credit spreads sit at one-year wides
December hike pricing is stuck in a 71–80% band across trackers (74% on LSEG, 74.9% on CME FedWatch) while the marginal information has moved to two places — a Treasury refunding on Nov 4 where dealers split on whether long-end supply guidance finally changes , and a credit market where US high yield has widened to its one-year widest and CCC spreads exceed 1,100bp even as equities sit 3% off record highs — the configuration that decides whether duration still hedges equity risk.
US strikes Qeshm Island on midterm eve as Brent rebounds to $106 and Iran dangles a two-day Hormuz reopening
US forces carried out undisclosed "defensive" strikes on Qeshm Island at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the eve of the midterms, confirmed only by anonymous officials , putting a risk premium back into crude — Brent January futures rose 1.7% to $106.57 after Monday's 7.6% collapse — even as Iran's foreign ministry said it would reopen the strait within two days if Washington lifts sanctions and releases frozen assets .