· Sunday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
December pricing holds near 76% into payrolls week as rule-based gaps say policy is still too loose
The Fed walks into a payrolls-heavy week with December priced around 76% on LSEG and at least two hikes priced over twelve months , while Deutsche Bank's rule-based work puts the funds rate 165bp below actual-data rule midpoints and 60bp below forecast-based ones even as terminal pricing is judged fair — so the marginal message is "still too loose, already fairly priced at the end" .
Iran rules out US talks as October sets a record attack month and CENTCOM claims 144 ships turned back
The diplomatic track reversed — Iran's foreign minister said there are no plans to meet US officials and the security chief has not answered Vice-President Vance's letter, while Secretary of State Rubio said President Trump has not decided on new strikes — as UKMTO logged just over 30 attacks on merchant vessels in October, the highest monthly count of the war, and Iran's navy claimed a fresh mine strike in the eastern strait .