· Monday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Hold near 90% with the guidance vacuum priced; Goldman's FCI arithmetic caps the hawkish tail while Jefferies calls a 9–3 hawkish pause
With the October hold priced at roughly 90% on CME and LSEG , the marginal information is two-sided and both sides are about the reaction function rather than the decision — Goldman calculates that the ~30bp of financial-conditions tightening since September is worth barely more than a single 25bp hike against four hikes priced, so tighter conditions cannot substitute for a hike , while Jefferies argues a sub-10% market price against 21-month-high core-goods inflation makes a 9–3 hawkish pause the base case with a higher terminal rate than priced .
Tehran hosts the Mecca-pact chiefs as the Houthis hit Riyadh airport and Brent slips to $115
Diplomacy and escalation ran on the same day — the Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish defence/security chiefs arrived in Tehran for the first group meeting between the Mecca mutual-defence pact members and Iran , while the Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh's international airport hours after it reopened and claimed drone strikes on oil pumping stations , and crude posted its first real pullback of the run, with Brent down 1.3% at $115.18 and December Brent down 1.8% to $114.57 .