· Tuesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Blackout begins with the December consensus intact — and the Treasury buyer base, not the Fed, is now the marginal price-setter
The Committee entered its pre-meeting blackout with October priced near an 83% hold and December carrying roughly a 78% probability of a cumulative 25bp , but the day's genuinely new information sat on the demand side of the Treasury market — weekly bond-fund inflows collapsing to the third percentile of the past six months, foreign official holdings down to 11.8% of the stack and hedge funds up to 33.5% — which is why the long end now reprices on flow and buyer quality rather than on Fed guidance .
Iran claims sovereignty over Hormuz as Brent holds near $110 and Houthis claim strikes on Yanbu and Shaybah
Brent held near a five-month high at $110.10 by 0319 GMT after touching $110.70, its highest since 20 May, as Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said Tehran has "no choice but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" and the Houthis claimed strikes on an Aramco site at Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and two Saudi airports , while UBS argued the underlying supply-demand balance is "less tight than previously expected" even with the risk premium holding crude above $100 .