· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Warsh's non-signal cuts October hike odds below 15% while the long end sells off on refunding disappointment
Chair Warsh's refusal to signal a decision at the IMF meetings collapsed market-implied October hike odds from about 27% to below 15% even as two hot inflation prints kept the sell side converging on a December — or December-plus-January — hike , a dovish front-end repricing set against a long end that sold off on a refunding-communication disappointment and heavy bill supply .
Brent above $109 as Hormuz attacks hit a wartime high and the Russian diesel bridge fails
Crude reversed yesterday's softening and closed the week sharply higher — Brent +3.3% to $109.37 and WTI +2.9% to $100.78, above $100 for the first time since September — as the IMO put the week of 5–11 October at 12 vessel-attack incidents (the highest single week of the war), cumulative attacks above 110 vessels with at least 24 seafarers killed, and the declared Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire collapsed without a single identified Russian diesel cargo reaching market .