· Saturday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Post-hike consolidation: a December hike becomes the sell-side base case as the 2-year yield hits a 2024 high
One day after the first hike in three years, the delivered tightening is consolidating into a "not done" base case — J.P. Morgan, UBS and BofA now frame a December move (or more) as likely, the 2-year Treasury closed at its highest since July 2024 and the 10-year back at 5%, while resilient growth data and a firm dollar leave the inflation/policy-driven positive stock-bond correlation regime intact .
JPMorgan admits it cannot model the war's endgame as Brent holds near $100 and the Houthis tighten Bab el-Mandeb
Six months in, the crisis has produced a measurement stalemate rather than a resolution — JPMorgan told investors on 9/18 that it has no baseline view for the first time since the war began and that "we simply don't know how to model the endgame" , Brent is holding near $100 rather than at the worst-case levels once predicted , and CBS News reports the Houthis have begun targeting Saudi oil tankers exiting the Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb .