· Wednesday
Daily briefs generated by sembr, the open-source semantic intelligence engine · every item links to its sources
Decision day: first hike since 2023 priced at 92–95%; the dot plot and Warsh's presser carry the risk
The FOMC is expected at 2 p.m. ET today to deliver its first rate increase since July 2023 — a quarter-point move to 3.75%–4.00%, priced at roughly 92–95% — with the tradeable risk having migrated entirely to the dot plot, the dissent count and Warsh's press conference, against a 10-year Treasury yield sitting above 5% at a 19-year high .
Yanbu loadings halted as the strait stays shut and the Houthi threat reaches Mecca's airspace
The shock migrated from the Strait of Hormuz to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea terminal — Yanbu suspended crude loadings and Aramco cancelled European cargoes, Saudi air defences intercepted a Houthi drone short of Mecca's airspace for the first time, and the GCC–Iran talks were formally cancelled, while Brent's first retreat in days (November contract −1.02% to $107.64) came from a 7.1-million-barrel US inventory build rather than any easing of the physical squeeze .